The potential for collaboration between the Baltic states and Japan is becoming increasingly significant in light of current geopolitical dynamics. Both regions face similar threats and share common values that can guide a unified response to challenges in democracy and security.
Key takeaways:
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The Baltic states and Japan are united by a commitment to democracy and the rules-based international order, making collaboration essential in the face of shared threats from Russia and China.
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Key areas for cooperation include cybersecurity, economic collaboration, and strategic communication.
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By leveraging their historical ties and mutual interests, the Baltic states and Japan can collectively contribute to a more stable and prosperous Europe and the Indo-Pacific region.
The Japan-Baltics connection
The relationship between the Baltic states and Japan dates back over a century, beginning well before Japan saw the Baltic region as Western Europe’s “Cordon Sanitaire” against Communism. However, the relationship with the Baltic states came to an end when the Soviet Union annexed them in 1940. In modern times, following the Baltic states’ regained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, their ties with Japan have been reestablished in the new context.
While located on the opposite ends of Eurasia, Japan, and the Baltics share many similarities. Today, Japan contends with strategic pressures from neighboring countries, particularly China and North Korea, threatening its national security and economic stability. China’s growing presence in the East China Sea has challenged Japan’s control over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, an issue Japan views as a direct threat to its sovereignty. Similarly, the Baltic states face aggressive actions from Russia, including military interventions and hybrid tactics like cyber-attacks and disinformation. The 2007 cyber-attack on Estonia, which crippled its banking and media systems, serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities the Baltic nations continue to confront.
The geopolitical landscape has shifted significantly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This act of aggression heightened security concerns across Europe and compelled NATO allies to re-evaluate their defense strategies. The Baltic states, positioned on the front lines of NATO, have been particularly affected by this shift. They face the constant threat of Russian hybrid warfare, which includes cyber operations, disinformation campaigns, and military posturing.
In a recent meeting held in Tokyo on March 6, Andris Pelšs, State Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Latvia, highlighted the urgency of united action, stating that “Like-minded countries must work together to restrict the threat posed by Russia to international security”. This call for collaboration reflects a growing consensus that a coordinated response is necessary to address shared security concerns and reinforce democratic values across both regions.
The implications of Russian aggression extend beyond military considerations. Economic repercussions are also felt, particularly in energy security and supply chains. The Baltic states’ dependence on energy imports makes them vulnerable to external pressures, necessitating a diversified approach to energy security that includes partnerships with countries like Japan.
Shared values and strategic interests
The Baltic states and Japan share fundamental values, including a commitment to democracy, human rights, and a rules-based international order.
In response to changing regional dynamics—particularly as the Baltic region’s connectivity shifts from east-west to north-south due to Russia’s actions in Ukraine—Japan and the Baltic states emphasize the importance of the Three Seas Initiative. This 13-member platform brining together CEE states offers valuable opportunities for Japanese government and business investments, advancing regional integration across the region. Japan has also been a thought leader, most notably through its “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) vision, which has inspired cooperation among like-minded nations. With its Indo-Pacific focus now advancing, Japan sees a growing need to extend alliances beyond the region. As Europe looks for supportive alliances, Japan can offer meaningful contributions to the Baltic Sea region, reinforcing shared security interests in an area where regional stakeholders likely value its engagement.
In addition to supporting NATO’s Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP) for Ukraine, Japan’s security cooperation with NATO could be strengthened by more regular participation in Baltic Sea naval drills, like those in August 2018. Such exercises align with Japan’s commitment to values-based diplomacy and a rules-based international order while encouraging NATO’s reciprocal engagement in East Asia.
On June 6, the Japan Chair at ICDS hosted the inaugural Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum, which addressed the security landscape in the Indo-Pacific amid rising Sino-US rivalry and Sino-Russian cooperation. The Forum highlighted how Asia-Europe security connections are strengthening in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Discussions covered critical topics like the US-Japan alliance, tensions in the Taiwan Strait, North Korea’s alignment with Russia, and Japan’s emerging role as a security partner. Panelists also examined Baltic, EU, and NATO perspectives on Indo-Pacific security, noting shared concerns over challenges to the liberal international order, economic security, and hybrid threats—key drivers behind growing inter-regional cooperation.
Cybersecurity nexus
Apart from “hard security”, cybersecurity is one of the most pressing areas for collaboration between the Baltic states and Japan. The Baltic nations have established robust cybersecurity frameworks in response to Russian cyber threats, focusing on resilience and rapid response mechanisms. Latvia, in particular, has invested heavily in building a comprehensive cybersecurity strategy that includes public-private partnerships and international cooperation.
Japan, too, has recognized the necessity of enhancing its cybersecurity measures, especially in light of recent cyber incidents attributed to hostile state actors. As cyber threats become increasingly sophisticated, a partnership focused on threat intelligence sharing, capacity building, and collaborative response strategies is essential.
Joint initiatives could encompass training programs that equip cybersecurity professionals in both regions with the skills to counter emerging threats effectively. This collaboration could also include the development of joint threat assessment frameworks and sharing best practices for incident response, ensuring that both regions are better prepared to tackle cyber challenges.
Economic cooperation
Japan and the Baltic countries have likewise prioritized deepening economic ties, recognizing the need to diversify and strengthen cooperation for sustainable growth. Key areas of focus include infrastructure, digital technology, start-ups, healthcare, science, 5G, cyber, and AI, reflecting both regions’ commitment to innovative collaboration.
In recent years, the Baltic states have successfully attracted significant Japanese investment in sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and technology. This economic relationship is not only beneficial for Baltic economies but also offers Japan an opportunity to expand its footprint in the European market. Recent discussions between Pelšs and Japanese officials, in addition to earlier meetings between the then Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė and the then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, have highlighted a mutual commitment to strengthening economic ties.
The strategic geographical location of the Baltic states provides Japanese businesses with a gateway to European markets. Creating an environment conducive to bilateral trade and investment will allow both parties to capitalize on their respective strengths. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were recognized with an award for their outstanding cooperation with Japan in promoting regional tourism at the 2017 Tourism EXPO Japan. In the same year, to further boost investments, the Estonian government approved an agreement to avoid double taxation between Estonia and Japan. Japanese companies primarily invest in Estonia’s information technology and communication sector. While Estonia has aimed to learn from Japan’s technological advancements, Japan has likewise shown strong interest in Estonia’s digital state solutions.
With its technological expertise, Japan is well-positioned to complement the Baltic states’ strategic priorities, especially in renewable energy development and infrastructure advancement. Notably, as the Baltic states prepare to synchronize their power networks with continental Europe, they are set to undertake a feasibility study with Japan on leveraging renewable energy to enhance grid stability beyond 2025, according to Lithuanian Energy Minister Zygimantas Vaiciunas. This partnership underscores Japan’s active role in the Baltic region’s energy transition, promoting integration within Europe’s energy network.
Conclusion
In today’s shifting geopolitical landscape, the partnership between Japan and the Baltic states is emerging as a crucial alliance. Both regions recognize the importance of a rules-based international order, a shared value underscored by Japan’s increased coordination with NATO and mutual support for Ukraine. To fortify this alignment, expanding Japan’s role in Baltic security—such as through regular participation in NATO’s Baltic naval exercises—would send a powerful signal of Japan’s commitment to European stability, which may encourage NATO’s reciprocal involvement in the Indo-Pacific.
Economically, Japan’s advanced technology and Baltic expertise in digital solutions position both regions for a partnership that drives sustainable growth and resilience. Joint efforts on energy diversification and cybersecurity, particularly in light of Baltic power grid integration and Japan’s cybersecurity advancements, could set a benchmark for other regions navigating similar security and sustainability challenges.
