Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Poland and Ukraine in August highlighted the growing importance of Central and Eastern Europe in India’s foreign policy.
Key takeaways:
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Modi’s visit to Poland and Ukraine should be viewed within the broader framework of India’s foreign policy, which is based on strategic autonomy and the concept of Vishwa Bandhu (World Brotherhood).
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Poland and India have decided to establish a Polish-Indian Strategic Partnership and adopted an Action Plan for 2024-2028. This marks a significant step in further institutionalizing bilateral relations.
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Modi’s visit to Ukraine is part of India’s strategy to become a global peacemaker. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked India for its current support in peace negotiations and asked for further support.
After visiting Russia in July, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveled to Poland and Ukraine at the end of August. While the itinerary might initially seem unusual, it aligns well with India’s broader geopolitical strategy. Strategic autonomy, a concept rooted in the doctrine of non-alignment, has been a cornerstone of India’s foreign policy since its independence in 1947. This principle posits that India should not base its international position on alliances with any single state but rather establish close relations with as many countries as possible to pursue its political and economic objectives. Hence, it is natural for the Indian government to maintain strong ties with both the United States and Russia or Iran and Israel simultaneously. This explains why, after visiting Moscow and extending cordial gestures to President Vladimir Putin, Modi could then travel to Warsaw and Kyiv, displaying similar warmth toward the leaders of those countries.
Since becoming Prime Minister in 2014, Modi has added the idea of Vishwa Bandhu (“Friend to the World”) to this strategy. According to the Indian government, strategic autonomy and the doctrine of non-alignment provide India with a unique opportunity to cooperate closely with most countries around the globe. As S. Jaishankar, India’s Minister of External Affairs, pointed out, many countries seek friendship with India because it does not take sides in global conflicts. New Delhi is positioning itself as a bridge between East and West and between the Global South and the Global North.
Reasons and significance of Modi’s visit to Poland
It had been 45 years since an Indian prime minister last visited Poland, with the previous visit by Morarji Desai in 1979. Several factors influenced Modi’s decision to visit Poland. The Polish government has been pushing for a visit at this level for over a decade, while 2024 marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, providing a timely occasion for such a visit.
Poland is also attractive to India from an economic perspective. Before arriving, Modi stated that Poland is India’s key economic partner in the region. Although Poland was only India’s 46th largest trading partner in 2023, with trade totaling $5.6 billion, the potential for growth remains significant, given that Poland’s share of India’s exports and imports was only 0.47% and 1.07%, respectively. Moreover, Poland’s labor costs are lower than those of Western Europe, which is significant as India seeks to increase its economic presence in the region. Several Indian companies, primarily in the IT sector, are already operating in Poland, and there is growing interest from other sectors, too. Central Europe’s strategic location between Western and Eastern Europe makes it an attractive destination for investment.
What is more, Central Europe has been relatively absent from India’s foreign policy strategy. Establishing closer relations with this region aligns with India’s goal of expanding its global influence. This is important for New Delhi through the lens of its EU policy as building closer ties with member countries in Central Europe could serve India’s strategic interests. Poland will assume the presidency of the Council of the European Union in the first half of 2025, which surely did not go unnoticed in New Delhi.
Lastly, Modi could only reach Kyiv, the next leg of his visit, by train via Poland, as ongoing hostilities in Ukraine have rendered air travel to Kyiv impossible. Thus, Modi’s visit to Poland was, in part, a logical (and also logistical) stop on his journey to Ukraine.
How much can a visit by one country’s leader to another change bilateral relations? In the case of Modi’s visit to Poland, the impact could be substantial. There is limited knowledge of Poland in India, which has constrained Poland’s significance as a political and economic partner. However, every foreign visit by Prime Minister Modi is extensively covered by the Indian media. Major news outlets such as The Hindu, Times of India, The Print, Hindustan Times, The Indian Express, The Economic Times, NDTV, Firstpost, and Livemint reported on Modi’s trip to Poland and Ukraine. It is likely that the word “Poland” appeared in Indian media discourse more frequently in the past week than in the past few years, sparking interest in Poland among Indian politicians, business leaders, and students.
During his visit to Warsaw, Modi met with Prime Minister Donald Tusk, President Andrzej Duda, Deputy Prime Minister Leszek Balcerowicz, and business representatives. Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, who accompanied Modi on the trip and met with Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski, underlying the high level of the visit. Modi and Tusk agreed to establish a Polish-Indian Strategic Partnership and adopt an Action Plan for 2024-2028, defining priority areas for bilateral cooperation. The two sides pledged to maintain regular foreign ministerial contacts, conduct annual consultations at the deputy minister level, resume the work of the Joint Working Group on Defense, and reestablish the Joint Economic Commission. This development is somewhat surprising, given the Polish government’s initial reluctance to pursue closer ties with India following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, a more pragmatic and transitional approach has ultimately prevailed. Poland has thus become India’s tenth strategic partner in Europe (eighth within the EU), while India is now Poland’s fourth in Asia (alongside China, Japan, and South Korea).
With the establishment of the Strategic Partnership, cooperation between Poland and India could reach a new level. However, this will depend on the further steps taken by Warsaw and New Delhi. It is crucial to institutionalize cooperation through concrete actions. Upgrading relations between India and Poland could be facilitated by appointing an ambassador of Poland to India. Since the new government came into power in 2023 and Donald Tusk became a prime minister, cooperation between the government and President Andrzej Duda in appointing new ambassadors has stalled, leaving the post of the Polish Ambassador in New Delhi vacant.
Reopening the Polish Investment and Trade Agency’s Foreign Office in India could also increase economic cooperation. Poland has much to offer India in food processing, renewable energy, and the weapons servicing and modernization sectors. Additionally, there is untapped potential in the higher education sector, where Indian students could help alleviate the impact of demographic decline on Polish universities.
It is also worth emphasizing that Poland’s political and economic relations with India will largely depend on the approach of the Polish government toward New Delhi. Poland must seize this momentum to strengthen ties with India, which will require significant changes in the perception of India among Polish decision-makers and the country’s overall approach. India is already playing a crucial role in global politics, which must be fully recognized. However, India’s presence in Polish media, economic forums, think tanks, and higher education institutions remains limited. There are not enough specialists on contemporary India in Poland. It is crucial to understand that India will not wait for Poland and Warsaw should step up if it wants to engage this increasingly important global power.
Indian perspective on the war in Ukraine
Modi became the first Indian prime minister to visit Ukraine since its independence in 1991. During his eight-hour visit to Kyiv, Modi reiterated India’s support for dialogue and diplomacy to restore peace and stability as soon as possible. He emphasized that India believes in respecting nations’ territorial integrity and sovereignty. Tusk, in turn, expressed satisfaction that the Indian prime minister reaffirmed his readiness to “personally work for a peaceful, just, and speedy end to the war.” However, when Modi was in Moscow in July 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on social media that he was “disappointed to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hugs the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow”.
It is crucial to understand India’s relationship with Russia to interpret these statements. India still sources more than 50% of its defense equipment from Russia, and the country was also India’s top oil supplier in 2023. The Modi government does not support Western sanctions against Russia and maintains a neutral stance at the UN. Despite this, Zelensky invited Modi to Kyiv, recognizing that more political and economic benefits could be gained through engagement. From a strategic perspective, New Delhi cannot afford to weaken its relations with Russia, not only due to its dependence on Russian weapons and cheap oil but also because of Russia’s growing ties with China, which India views as its biggest political and economic rival. India is trying to keep Russia as close as possible to avoid the situation in which China will have Russia’s support in case of an India-China conflict or war.
During his meeting with Zelensky, Modi pledged humanitarian support, including medicine and medical equipment, and signed agreements on cooperation in the agricultural, pharmaceutical, cultural, and humanitarian sectors. Notably, the two leaders also discussed increased cooperation in the defense industry, including Indian manufacturing, and Modi expressed interest in Indian companies participating in Ukraine’s reconstruction.
President Zelensky thanked India for participating in the first peace summit held in Switzerland in June and expressed his willingness for India to organize the second peace summit. He also announced his readiness to visit New Delhi in the near future. This proposal is intriguing for India, as it aims to be a friend to the world and play a constructive role in peace processes in global conflicts. India would like to achieve at least a similar level of success as China did in facilitating the re-establishment of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This could be one of the ways India could assume a role on the international stage that matches its ambitions.
Conclusion: India’s global role is evolving
Central Europe has not played an important role in India’s foreign policy, and New Delhi has prioritized cooperation with Western European countries, especially Germany, France and the United Kingdom. However, as Central Europe has much to offer regarding political and economic cooperation, this approach is slowly changing. As the world’s fifth-largest economy, India seeks to play a more significant role in international politics, including through the aspiration to act as a bridge between the West and countries like Russia.
Just after Modi returned to India on August 26th, he received a phone call from US President Joe Biden, during which the two leaders exchanged “views on various regional and global issues, including the situation in Ukraine”. Modi assured Biden that India would support a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Modi spoke with Putin the following day, stating on social media that they discussed strengthening the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership between India and Russia. He also said they exchanged perspectives on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Modi sharing with Putin his insights from his visit to Ukraine.
These two calls demonstrate key global actors have noticed India’s visit to Poland and Ukraine. However, whether India will play a significant role in the peace process is still uncertain. India’s implementation of strategic autonomy and the Vishwa Bandhu concept in its foreign policy is ongoing, and it will take time to assess its effectiveness.
