As transatlantic relations face significant turbulence, China has emerged as a challenging and potentially dangerous partner for Europe. In that case, could India offer a new source of hope for Poland and the old continent?
Key takeaways:
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In August 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Poland, elevating Polish-Indian relations to the status of a “strategic partnership”.
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The full potential of India-Poland relations remains largely untapped, as evidenced by the fact that, before Modi’s trip, the previous visit to Poland by an Indian prime minister was in 1979.
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While some argue that India’s neutral stance on the Ukraine conflict may negatively affect its relations with Poland, Warsaw may choose to overlook New Delhi’s ties with Russia to strengthen India-Poland relations, with a focus on trade and economy.
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Despite challenges in expanding bilateral trade and investment, Poland’s rapidly growing Indian diaspora could play a crucial role in enhancing Polish-Indian relations.
“There is no conflict of interest between our countries. We have always understood each other well despite the distance, varying traditions and history,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk while hosting his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, in Warsaw last year. Indeed, it is difficult to identify any points of tension in Polish-Indian relations. On the contrary, there have been especially positive moments, such as the famous story of the “Good Maharaja,” who used his own resources to take in a large group of Polish orphans wandering across Asia during World War II.
The absence of flashpoints, however, was largely due to the fact that Polish-Indian relations remained on the sidelines for decades. Modi’s visit last year, while undoubtedly significant, was also the first by an Indian head of government to Poland in 45 years. Some observers, however, viewed it as driven mainly by logistics: since Modi’s ultimate destination was Ukraine, a stop in Poland appeared a welcome, but incidental, outcome. Perhaps, however, the time for change has come. During Modi’s brief stay in Warsaw, Polish-Indian relations were elevated to a strategic partnership. The term may risk remaining an empty slogan, but it could also mark the start of a new chapter. As noted in the latest report by the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS), Polish-Indian relations hold considerable but still untapped potential.
Trade with India: Poland faces many challenges
The European Union takes India very seriously. It is currently engaged in intensive negotiations on a free trade agreement, and both sides seem determined to conclude a deal by year’s end. However, Poland faces significant challenges in its economic relations with India. Although India is the second-largest destination for Polish investment in Asia, cooperation remains underdeveloped. Poland also runs a sizeable trade deficit with India. Moreover, Polish exports to India are poorly diversified, dominated by coke, retort coal, and ferrous waste and scrap. Difficulties in expanding ties may stem in part from the perception that India is a challenging market for Polish companies due to cultural and business differences as well as complex bureaucratic procedures.
Still, opportunities exist. During his meeting with Modi, Prime Minister Tusk emphasized Poland’s interest in boosting trade with India. Potential areas of cooperation include Poland’s role in modernizing India’s Soviet-era military equipment and in developing green technologies. In addition, Poland could position itself as a significant hub for food processing.
India: A demographic winner
India is a young society—over half of its 1.4 billion people are under the age of 30. A significant share of this youth population is emigrating, including to Poland. Importantly, Indian migrants can help alleviate labor shortages in the Polish market. By mid-2024, Indians accounted for 2% of all foreign workers in Poland. The number of Indian students is also rising. In 2024, more than 3,000 Indians were studying in Poland, making them one of the largest groups of non-European students. Tourism is expanding as well. The number of Indian tourists grew by 41.4% between 2022 and 2023, from 25,000 to 36,000. As a result, Indian visitors to Poland slightly outnumbered Polish tourists to India in the same year.
It is also worth considering how the growing Indian presence is perceived in Poland—given the increase in students, the influx of highly skilled workers into international companies, and the proliferation of Indian restaurants. A CEIAS survey shows that Poles generally hold a positive or neutral view of Indian citizens: 39.7% of respondents expressed a positive or very positive opinion, 28.3% a negative or very negative one, and 32% were neutral. Notably, the share of positive opinions in Poland is the highest among the four Visegrad Group countries (Czechia, Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary).
India and Poland: Time to adopt a strategy
India follows the principle of “strategic autonomy,” seeking to maintain positive relations with all countries while avoiding formal alliances. This explains India’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine: it has neither condemned the invasion nor joined the sanctions. Moreover, Indian imports of Russian oil and gas have multiplied since February 2022, with Russian supplies now accounting for 35% of its total imports. Russia, much like the Soviet Union in the past, remains a crucial partner, particularly given India’s tense relations with China.
At the same time, India has deepened its partnership with the United States, especially in security, though without a formal alliance. Today, however, that relationship is being tested. Recently, US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 50% tariffs on Indian goods if New Delhi continues importing Russian oil. Prime Minister Modi responded firmly, pledging to protect Indian farmers.
Such trade wars and global tensions inevitably affect Poland’s relations with India. Much, however, depends on Warsaw and New Delhi themselves. Poland is not a global player like Germany or France, but it is significant enough to look beyond Europe and the United States. Smaller neighbors, such as Lithuania and Czechia, have already published Indo-Pacific strategies, setting priorities in policy, economy, and cybersecurity cooperation. It is time for Poland to do the same.
This article has been adapted from a Polish original published by Rzeczpospolita.
